Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Is Alonso’s success overnight?

In any competitive sport, luck can help you once but to perform consistently, one has to put hardwork and needs to be patient.

Formula 1’s rejuvenated hero, Fernando Alonso has just done that. With back to back wins in Singapore and Japanese Grand Prix, he has made a strong statement about his potential. Some Ferrari and McLaren fans might say that it was a fluke and with their share of bad luck, Alonso managed to win last two races. But winning back to back when your car is not as good as top 4, is something we should praise him for.

Ok, Alonso is doing well now, but how he is faring when compared to the top 5? Is he in the same league? Well, looking at last few races, we can say that ‘No, he is not in the same league, he is part of the higher league than top 5.’ This statement might look very aggressive considering the fact that Alonso was never in the title race for this season and his career was as good as putting a car on low gas. But there are stats to back it up that he is still the one. Have a look at the table below and you will understand, the consistent performances put up by Alonso as against bumpy ride the top 5 are going through. Alonso has amassed 35 points in last 6 races where maximum 60 points where available. In comparison, Hamilton (26), Massa (25), Kovalainen (25), Räikkönen (16), Kubica (16) are no where near to Alonso.



Figure 1 : Drivers statistics for last six races (click to enlarge)



Now you will argue that points in F1 are not true indicators as all positions from 9 onwards are just the same in terms of points (i.e. they all get 0 points). So, another statistic can be average ranking each player has achieved over last 6 races. For simplicity we will put a rank of 20 when the player did not finish the race and was not classified by FIA. In this perspective, we will see that Alonso with average rank of 5.7 is second only behind Hamilton (5.3) and is equaling Kovalainen (5.7). It is even more astonishing when you notice that he did not finish one race (results in ranking of 20) as against Hamilton or Kovalainen who finished all races. The other drivers are no where near to this consistent performance. Massa’s average rank is 7.5, Räikkönen is at 11, Kubica is 7.2.

What these statistics mean is that Alonso has performed better than others in last few races. Now, let’s go little deep to understand why it happened. There can be two ways. One, Alonso had a better car from Renault as against Ferrari, McLaren or BMW, or second, he is a better driver than all the others.

The first reasoning goes for a toss when we compare Alonso’s performance against that of his team mate over last few races. Nelson Piquet Jr is no mug in driving. He has won GP2 championship and is a very competitive racer. His car is by no means any different than that of Alonso’s. So why his average rank in last 6 races has been 11.9 and total points scored are mere 8? So, with same car setup, same engineers, same team one driver scores 35 points and other manages only 8. This only suggests that there is no doubt in slow and steady improvements in the team but Alonso is way beyond others when driving skills are considered which tilt the balance in favor of Renault.

By no means I am suggesting that other drivers are junk. Personally I am die hard fan of Kimi but in last few races Alonso has proved that he has in him what it takes to be a great driver and can be effective in car under him. After all, he managed to give a lot hard times to M Schumacher. Though for next seasons all major drivers seats are confirmed (all front running teams have extended their contracts with their current drivers), Alonso seems to be destined to stay in Renault. But just for sake of it, imagine Alonso in a scarlet Ferrari and I am sure your mind will go wrooooom !!! :)